Airline Demand On Canada – US Routes Collapses By More Than 70%
Demand for airline tickets on flights between Canada to the USA has collapsed, with forward bookings down as much as 75% as an ongoing trade war between the United States and Canada shows no signs of slowing down.
Airline Demand Collapses Between Canada And USA
I highlighted recent statements from United CEO Scott Kirby noting that demand between Canada and the USA has been particularly impacted amid a broader story of weaker demand to the United States, but we are now seeing just how steep the decline in demand is in transborder traffic.
Aviation analytics company OAG published a report highlighting just how much demand has dropped. The table below highlights 2024 versus 2025 numbers for the summer season:
Month of Booking | April | May | June | July | August | Sept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 2024 | 1,218,570 | 817,912 | 649,878 | 516,344 | 370,228 | 233,160 |
March 2025 | 295,982 | 226,980 | 184,720 | 147,679 | 103,914 | 65,680 |
% Change | -75.7% | -72.2% | -71.6% | -71.4% | -71.9% | -71.8% |
As OAG notes, “The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”
It is not clear how much of an imbalance there is between falling demand from Canada to the USA versus trips to Canada originating in the USA. It is also not clear whether some of this steep decline is offset by last-minute ticket purchases, with some taking a “wait and see” approach and coming at the last minute, despite misgivings (for example, so many Canadians have winter homes in Arizona or Florida).
You can draw your own conclusions about what is causing this, but airlines are responding by slashing schedules, with the number of seats for sale down as much as 3.5% during the busiest August summer travel period. WestJet is attempting to add more service to Europe at the last minute while Air Canada has struggled to add alternate routes (which is understandable for a larger network carrier that already serves most major markets in Europe).
CONCLUSION
Demand for airline tickets between Canada and the USA has collapsed, with steep declines of over 70% forecast through autumn. This is a striking case study and begs the question, will we see the same thing from Europe?
Airline Demand On Canada – US Routes Collapses By More Than 70%
Demand for airline tickets on flights between Canada to the USA has collapsed, with forward bookings down as much as 75% as an ongoing trade war between the United States and Canada shows no signs of slowing down.
Airline Demand Collapses Between Canada And USA
I highlighted recent statements from United CEO Scott Kirby noting that demand between Canada and the USA has been particularly impacted amid a broader story of weaker demand to the United States, but we are now seeing just how steep the decline in demand is in transborder traffic.
Aviation analytics company OAG published a report highlighting just how much demand has dropped. The table below highlights 2024 versus 2025 numbers for the summer season:
Month of Booking | April | May | June | July | August | Sept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 2024 | 1,218,570 | 817,912 | 649,878 | 516,344 | 370,228 | 233,160 |
March 2025 | 295,982 | 226,980 | 184,720 | 147,679 | 103,914 | 65,680 |
% Change | -75.7% | -72.2% | -71.6% | -71.4% | -71.9% | -71.8% |
As OAG notes, “The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”
It is not clear how much of an imbalance there is between falling demand from Canada to the USA versus trips to Canada originating in the USA. It is also not clear whether some of this steep decline is offset by last-minute ticket purchases, with some taking a “wait and see” approach and coming at the last minute, despite misgivings (for example, so many Canadians have winter homes in Arizona or Florida).
You can draw your own conclusions about what is causing this, but airlines are responding by slashing schedules, with the number of seats for sale down as much as 3.5% during the busiest August summer travel period. WestJet is attempting to add more service to Europe at the last minute while Air Canada has struggled to add alternate routes (which is understandable for a larger network carrier that already serves most major markets in Europe).
CONCLUSION
Demand for airline tickets between Canada and the USA has collapsed, with steep declines of over 70% forecast through autumn. This is a striking case study and begs the question, will we see the same thing from Europe?