COVID Numbers Rising But No Masks On Planes This Time Around

COVID infections are rising but it won’t mean masking up on planes this time around. 

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As COVID-19 cases once again rise across the United States, it begs the question as to whether protective measures such as mask mandates will return, especially in high-risk, enclosed environments like airplanes. Recent data shows an uptick in cases during the latter part of 2023 and into 2024, largely driven by new variants and changes in vaccination behavior. According to the CDC, hospitalizations and positive case rates have increased, though nothing near the alarming levels seen in 2020 and 2021. However, despite these upward trends, it is unlikely that masks will return to widespread use on airplanes, and there are several factors behind this shift in public health policy and sentiment.

Context: Comparing Current COVID Numbers to Previous Years

Though COVID-19 cases are on the rise once again, they remain significantly lower than the peaks witnessed in 2020 and 2021. During the initial waves of the pandemic, infection rates surged dramatically, overwhelming hospitals and leading to widespread panic. In 2020 alone, the U.S. saw daily new cases in the hundreds of thousands at the height of the winter wave. Vaccination campaigns, social distancing, and mandatory mask policies in places like airports and planes made getting around difficult. However, in recent years, the situation has shifted.

By mid-2023, while COVID still circulated in the population, the severity of illness had diminished for many, with far fewer deaths and hospitalizations per number of infections compared to earlier in the pandemic. Correlations to co-morbidities seems to have diminished as well. This shift has been attributed to a combination of factors, including widespread vaccination, natural immunity from previous infections, and more targeted medical treatments. In comparison, the case numbers available today no longer justify the same level of public health intervention that some deemed necessary during the pandemic’s earlier stages.

Efficacy of Masks and Their Impact on the Airline Industry

One key reason for the absence of mask mandates, particularly on airplanes, is the evolving understanding of the efficacy of masks. While early studies suggested that masks could significantly reduce the spread of respiratory viruses like COVID-19, more recent case studies and reviews have indicated that their protective benefit, particularly in high-ventilation environments like airplanes, may be less than previously thought.

“In this review, we did not find evidence to support a protective effect of personal protective measures or environmental measures in reducing influenza transmission.”

“We did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility…” – CDC study quoted by Utah State Legislature

The effectiveness of masks largely depends on the type of mask worn and the consistency with which individuals wear them. In public settings, compliance with mask usage has varied, and cloth masks, which many wore, were found to provide less protection compared to surgical or N95 masks. Mandating N95 masks seems to be extremely difficult even in more COVID-wary countries.

Furthermore, the airline industry itself suffered significant financial and operational challenges during the peak of mask mandates. Airlines experienced a sharp decline in passenger numbers, leading to widespread layoffs, government bailouts, and customer dissatisfaction. Enforcing mask mandates became a burden for airline staff, with many flight attendants reporting verbal and sometimes physical altercations with passengers resistant to wearing masks. Some pointed to this being the moment in which public behavior on airlines severely declined.

Airlines were eager to remove restrictions that were not only difficult to enforce but also contributed to the negative perception of air travel. This strain on the industry, combined with the evolving data on mask efficacy, has played a role in airlines and governments resisting a return to mandatory mask-wearing policies.

Regardless of a rise in cases, airlines would point to the CDC’s own findings in a lack of mask efficacy as well as a drop in severity either due to herd immunity, vaccinations, or generally better hygiene practices.

Early Assumptions About COVID’s Severity Hurts Further Mandates

Another contributing factor to the reluctance to reintroduce mask mandates on planes is a growing acknowledgment that some early assumptions about the severity of COVID-19 may have been overstated. While the initial spread of the virus was indeed deadly and disruptive, especially among vulnerable populations, the overall risk of severe illness or death has decreased significantly for the general population, particularly as vaccines and natural immunity have provided widespread protection. With improved treatments available, the death toll from COVID-19 is now much lower than during the pandemic’s early days, and for many, contracting the virus now results in mild to moderate symptoms that are manageable at home.

This recalibration of the perceived threat has led to a more measured response to rising case numbers. Instead of resorting to sweeping restrictions like mask mandates or lockdowns, public health authorities are focusing on targeted interventions, such as encouraging booster vaccinations for high-risk individuals and improving ventilation in indoor spaces. This approach reflects a broader societal shift towards learning to live with the virus rather than attempting to eliminate it through strict public health measures.

A number of measures thought to be effective at the time have been found baseless. Dr. Fauci’s own testimony on Capitol Hill suggesting the six-feet of distance metric was assumed by the CDC and unscientific yet implemented all the same.

Conclusion

Although COVID-19 cases are rising again, it is unlikely that mask mandates will return to airplanes anytime soon. The comparison between current case numbers and those from the pandemic’s height shows a far less dire situation, despite the virus still circulating. Furthermore, new insights into the limited effectiveness of masks in preventing transmission on planes, combined with the negative impact mask mandates had on the airline industry, make a return to those policies less appealing. Additionally, the evolving understanding of COVID-19’s severity has led to more measured public health strategies, favoring personal responsibility and targeted interventions over broad mandates. For now, it appears that air travel will continue to operate in a mask-free environment, even as the virus continues to persist.