Flying From Canada Uniquely Advantageous, Cost Effective

While airlines pull back service between the US and Canada amid trade and tariff uncertainty, now might be the best time to book flights from Canada. 

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Tariffs, Threats, Uncertainty, Election

Canada, and now the whole world, has been subject to tariff threats and implementation from the United States. Greenland and Canada have both been the target of US President Trump’s annexation ambitions one way or another and while it’s not clear if these concerns can be taken seriously, it’s sent markets wild. On top of that, Former Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, resigned his post after 10 years at the helm of the G7 nation. After failing to secure a deal at Mar-a-Lago before Trump even took [his second] oath of office, he found support had crumbled at home (though the Liberal party has seen a resurgence in national popularity since then.)

The country now faces a snap election at the end of this month, April 28th, 2025 in which Mark Carney has an 83% chance of winning.

With all of the uncertainty around US-Canada (really US-everybody else) relations, airlines have reduced frequencies between the two countries for the foreseeable future due to a drop in demand.

“Canadian carriers have seen softening demand amid geopolitical tensions between Canada and the USA – largely related to a potentially escalating trade war – and the rise of the “buy Canada” movement encouraging Canadians to spend domestically.

“Our goal is to fly where our customers want to travel, and this is a moment [where] Canada is at the top of many people’s list,” says Kevin Jackson, Porter’s president. “We are adding routes and increasing flights in regions across the country to meet this demand.” – Flight Global

Canadian Discount

One Toronto hotel executive I met with recently mentioned how this is the best time to come to Canada – not necessarily due to the “Buy Canadian” push but because of the currency exchange rates particularly with respect to the US. I let the thought marinate for a bit while I shopped for a variety of flights in business class over the last few weeks and alternated departure points including both US and Canadian airports.

For what it’s worth, the Canadian Dollar is only down 4.4% against the US Dollar since the US election when this all arose shortly after. At the time of writing, $1 USD buys $1.42 CAD, a meaningful increase over historical levels but not a dramatic departure having exceeded the current exchange rate during COVID and three days prior to Trump’s first inauguration, January 18th, 2016.

When pricing flights from Toronto or New York, Seattle or Vancouver flights can be as much as 33% less even when connecting to the same flights. For those traveling with several passengers in business class or first can stand to save a considerable amount of money.

For example, the cheapest days to fly in January from New York or Toronto to Bangkok on the same flights face a 20% surcharge when departing from New York over Toronto.

We see something similar to Tokyo in September.

Seattle is worse, hitting around 33% cheaper when flying from Vancouver over Seattle and a far superior product.

Drivers, Major Hubs Have A Cheat Code

Positioning to Canada to fly for less will eat into any savings (unless one uses miles to get there, and cash from Canada onward) but those flying from major hubs maintain an advantage with inexpensive flights still available despite lower capacity.

But the real advantage is for those who can drive. New York to Toronto is not a convenient drive, but many position to other cities for better flight prices. Buffalo passengers would be far wiser driving to Toronto Pearson than commuting to New York, Boston, or Chicago. Seattleites have the most to gain by driving shortly north to Vancouver.

In some of the examples I have found, a party of four could save several thousand dollars simply by driving across the border and flying from Canadian airports whether it’s to Europe, Asia, or beyond. This is something mid-sized airports far from the border can’t deliver but those close or from large hubs, can. For example, positioning from Los Angeles to Vancouver or Toronto and Miami to Toronto are less than $200 roundtrip for coordinating flights.

Mexico Doesn’t Offer The Same Opportunity

The Mexican Peso has suffered far more due to the same economic pressures down 25% since April of last year but only about 3.9% of that drop was since the US election result in November. However, the same discount is not true for Mexican departures. San Diego offers better prices than Tijuana, once a sweet spot for Americans living on the border. Los Angeles and Tijuana charge about the same amount for business class flights to Tokyo, though with the added benefit of non-stop flights on Singapore rather than connecting in Mexico City to Aeromexico. This makes this advantage uniquely Canadian.

Conclusion

Whether it’s an economic decision or to support a neighbor, premium flyers stand to save considerable money by flying from Canada at the moment. Canada as a country, and her airlines would likely welcome the business. And for US carriers charging more – especially those on the same flights like the American Airlines/Royal Jordanian example above – I won’t feel any guilt at all paying thousands less and flying from the north first. After all, I’ve driven to Washington DC (about four hours) to hop on flights far cheaper than from my home in Pittsburgh, Toronto isn’t that much farther.

What do you think?