As Air Canada launches its third nonstop route to Southeast Asia, is there room for United Airlines to add its own nonstop transpacific flight to Bangkok, especially as Thai Airways considers a return to the United States?

Will We See More Nonstop Flights To Southeast Asia On United Airlines?

United Airlines recently announced new service to Bangkok (BKK) and Ho Chi Minh City (SGN), but not from its West Coast hub in San Francisco as many expected, but from Hong Kong (HKG). These routes will mark a resumption of historic routes that date back to Pan Am (United acquired Pan Am’s Pacific division in 1985).

The economics of operating nonstop service to traditionally low-yield leisure destinations like Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are daunting, even with fuel-efficient aircraft (like the 787-9) and connecting options (Thai Airways, a Star Alliance member, is hubbed in Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport and offers domestic and regional connections).

Air Canada is not touting its new service to Manila (MNL) and nonstops to Bangkok (BKK) and Singapore (SIN) in terms of business travel, but in terms of Hollywood connections:

Southeast Asia is a dream destination for movie and TV fans. Air Canada’s direct flights bring you to the heart of three of the most sought-after travel destinations in 2025:

• Thailand – The White Lotus: The breathtaking backdrop of The White Lotus Season 3, Thailand is a paradise of luxury, nature, and culture. Fly nonstop to Bangkok and experience it firsthand.

• Singapore – Crazy Rich Asians: From the Marina Bay Sands infinity pool to world-class hawker food, Singapore brings the opulence and vibrancy of Crazy Rich Asians to life. With nonstop flights to Singapore, indulge in your own high-society adventure.

• Manila – The Bourne Legacy: High-speed chases through Manila’s bustling streets made The Bourne Legacy an action-packed spectacle. With nonstop flights from Vancouver to Manila you can dive into the city’s energy, history, and rich culture.

And indeed, many will want to go to Thailand after watching White Lotus or Singapore after watching Crazy Rich Asians…but is that enough to sustain a route? Or even the focus?

We see that United has had a lot of success in Manila, with a second daily nonstop set to launch later this year. When I flew this route I noticed there were many Filipino-Americans onboard: people like to visit friends and family! Air Canada has followed in United’s footsteps in launching its own nonstop service to Manila earlier this month from Vancouver (YVR).

Meanwhile, all indicators suggest Air Canada’s nonstop Vancouver – Bangkok route has been a resounding success: the carrier commands a revenue premium for the nonstop route and has expanded its seasonal service from three times weekly to five times weekly.

Just last week, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reinstated Thailand’s Category 1 International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) rating. Now Thai-based carriers can fly nonstop to the United States.

Will Thai Airways try to resume service to the USA? As late as 2012, Thai flew an Airbus A340-500 from Bangkok to Los Angeles nonstop – then until 2015 flew to LAX via Seoul Incheon. It’s widely thought, however, that the route never made money.

But could a nonstop United flight from San Francisco to Bangkok, with all of United’s connectivity, actually make money?  I’d have to imagine that if Patrick Quayle, United’s SVP Global Network Planning and Alliances, and his team thought that it could, it would be launched…

Even so, would United consider such a route just to deter Thai Airways from starting its own?

Or is the better to focus, as American Airlines has done with JAL or Delta Air Lines has done with Korean Air, on funneling passengers to JV partner hubs for onward connectivity?

As Quayle has told me before, sometimes you just have to try a route and see how it does…

CONCLUSION

New aircraft and changing travel patterns have opened up more opportunities for nonstop flights between North America and Southeast Asia. Even so, the economics of these routes are difficult and I would be surprised to see Thai Airways resume direct service to the USA and think that United’s experiment to Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City via Hong Kong (or Cebu and Ulaanbaatar via Tokyo Narita) represent the realities of limited demand and yields on nonstop flights.

image: Air Canada