A single government advisory has sharply disrupted travel patterns between China and Japan, triggering a wave of cancellations that surprised even industry analysts.

Flight Demand From China To Japan Plummets After China Issues Travel Warning

On November 14, 2025, the government of the People’s Republic of China issued a travel advisory urging its citizens to avoid Japan, citing “significant risks” to Chinese nationals:

Since the beginning of this year, public security in Japan has been unstable, with a high number of criminal incidents targeting Chinese citizens. Multiple cases of assaults on Chinese nationals in Japan have occurred, some of which remain unsolved. The overall security environment for Chinese citizens in Japan has continued to deteriorate. Recently, Japanese leaders openly made provocative remarks concerning Taiwan, further worsening the atmosphere for China-Japan people-to-people exchanges and posing significant risks to the personal safety and lives of Chinese citizens in Japan.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Japan solemnly remind Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in the near future. Chinese citizens already in Japan should closely monitor local security conditions, enhance safety awareness, and strengthen self-protection. In case of an emergency, please promptly contact local police and reach out to the Chinese Embassy or Consulates in Japan for assistance.

Within days, Chinese carriers recorded roughly 491,000 cancelled tickets to Japan, representing anywhere from 30-80% to of total bookings on certain days.

The advisory followed outspoken remarks from Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan might intervene militarily if China attacked the Republic of China (Taiwan). Several major Chinese travel agencies responded by suspending Japan tour sales and pausing personal travel bookings.

Japanese tourism-linked stocks, including department stores, airlines, and retailers that rely heavily on inbound Chinese visitor spending, fell sharply after the announcement.

Why The Sharp Drop?

While travel demand fluctuates for many reasons, the speed and magnitude of these cancellations are highly unusual. Nearly half a million bookings evaporated in a matter of days, making this the most severe drop in China to Japan traffic since the early days of COVID 19.

In a one-party state, my theory is that travel to Japan is now viewed as disloyal and unpatriotic and that has pushed Chinese travelers to suspend trips they otherwise would not have for fear of repercussions over China’s controversial and secretive Social Credit System. The safety concerns are absurd: the Chinese national stabbed in Osaka….was stabbed by another Chinse national. Japan is remarkably safe.

Impacts On Japan’s Tourism Sector

China has been Japan’s largest single source of inbound visitors, accounting for roughly one quarter of arrivals. The sudden contraction exposes how dependent some sectors of Japanese tourism are on travelers from China.

Early estimates suggest losses could reach billions of yen if the downturn persists, but would that be a terrible thing? Certainly for those agencies and hotels that cater to the Chinese, but overall Japan ahs complained about over-tourism in hotspots like Kyoto, Osaka, and Tokyo. Maybe the lack of Chinese visitors will make for a more pleasant experience for travelers from other nations.

CONCLUSION

China’s new travel advisory has sharply reduced demand for flights to Japan and created immediate pressure on Japanese tourism and airline revenue. Although the situation may stabilize as political messaging evolves, the scale of cancellations underscores how quickly travel flows can shift when geopolitical tensions escalate.