Thanksgiving Travel Faces A Shutdown-Sized Stress Test
Record holiday demand meets a federal shutdown. Here is why Thanksgiving week could be a mess, and what changes if Washington flips the switch in time.
A Perfect Storm For America’s Busiest Travel Week
Thanksgiving is not a normal travel period. It is the week when the largest air market in the world sprints home at the same time, then sprints back again. While not everyone travels, almost every American celebrates Thanksgiving. Airlines flex every spare aircraft. Highways fill past the point of reason. Last year AAA projected nearly 80 million travelers over the broader Thanksgiving window, a figure that topped the pre-pandemic record. Even if this year softens a touch, we are still staring at one of the largest movements of people in the US calendar.
Layer on a federal government shutdown that began October 1 and is still rolling. The Congressional Budget Office pegs the economic hit in the billions if the stalemate lingers into mid or late November. That is not abstract. It means unpaid federal safety and security workers, paused training, and a system that has less slack exactly when it needs the most.
What The Numbers Say Right Now
TSA’s daily checkpoint counts show fall traffic running near last year’s pace. That matters because checkpoint throughput is a solid near-real-time proxy for passenger demand. In late October, TSA screened roughly two million travelers per day, tracking very close to 2024 levels. If that trend holds into late November, air travel demand will be comparable to last year’s record holiday. Translation: even a small operational wobble can create very visible pain.
Aviation already entered this shutdown with a staffing deficit. The FAA met its 2025 hiring goal of about 2,000 new controllers, but the agency still estimates a shortfall on the order of several thousand. Mandatory overtime and thin margins leave little room for sick calls or training pauses. During the 2018–2019 shutdown, TSA sick-outs reached about 10 percent and airports felt it. That history is the backdrop for Thanksgiving 2025.
But there’s still time for a special Thanksgiving.
Airline Leaders Are Ringing The Alarm
Airline CEOs met at the White House this week with Vice President J.D. Vance and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, urging a quick end to the shutdown. Airlines for America publicly pushed for a “clean CR” to get pay flowing to controllers, TSA, and CBP before the holidays. You do not need to read between the lines. When the people who run the schedule call it a looming disaster, believe them. Matthew had more on this with a specific focus on United and Scott Kirby.
Four Timelines, Four Very Different Thanksgivings
Every day there is hope that one way or another the government re-opens. The longer it lingers, the worse it gets. Here’s some thoughts as to what happens if the government re-opens at different windows prior to the busy holiday travel period, or if it doesn’t at all.
If Washington Reopens Right Away
An immediate deal gives agencies a little runway. Controllers, TSA officers, and CBP agents get paid again. Training and overtime approvals restart. Some damage is already done to morale and schedules, but staffing should stabilize before the peak surge. Expect longer lines than usual at major hubs, rolling delays during the busiest bank times, and a system that mostly holds together. Think: uncomfortable rather than catastrophic.
If Washington Reopens Two Weeks Before Thanksgiving
Two weeks is tight but workable. Pay resumes, yet it takes time to unwind leave swaps and second jobs that workers picked up to cover missed checks. The FAA can re-sequence training, though the backlog does not vanish overnight. Expect elevated wait times, more ground delay programs at congested airports, and higher misconnect risk during the Tuesday and Wednesday push. Airlines will pad schedules where they can, but buffers are thin this late.
If Washington Reopens One Week Before Thanksgiving
One week is triage. Agencies will call all hands, but predictable sick leave, burnout, and scheduling whiplash will bite. Security lines at peak hours will swing widely. Weather becomes a force multiplier. A standard November weather event, even a small one, can trigger outsized delays because there is not enough staffing slack to recover quickly. Plan for earlier arrivals at the airport and fewer rebooking options if your flight misconnects.
If Washington Does Not Reopen Before Travel Starts
This is the worst case. Unpaid critical workers try to hold the line, but absenteeism rises. TSA and CBP reassign where possible, which means some checkpoints and lanes operate part-time. The FAA leans on flow control and ground delay programs more often because controller staffing is stretched and training is paused. Expect sustained delays and sporadic cancellations during the Tuesday outbound and Sunday return peaks, with ripple effects into Monday. The history from 2019 is clear on how quickly absenteeism can spike when checks do not arrive.
The Quiet Demand Story: People Reconsider Plans
Not everyone is hitting pause because of fares or schedules. Some travelers are federal employees who have missed paychecks and are cutting discretionary trips. Others are private-sector workers nervous about a choppy fourth quarter. Then there is the psychology of crowds. If you think the airport will be a nightmare, you are more likely to punt to Christmas or stay local. Softening in demand does not eliminate congestion. It only dulls the tip of the spear while the system fights upstream constraints. Recent reporting on the shutdown’s growing footprint supports the idea that households are pulling back at the margins.
Why The CEOs Are Right About A Clean CR
I am not interested in assigning blue or red jerseys here – there’s plenty of hot air on both sides of this issue. I am interested in whether the system that moves the country on its busiest week has the resources to function safely and reliably. Airline leaders are asking for a clean continuing resolution because it restores pay and authority fast, without side conditions that produce another stalemate. The White House meeting, and the trade group statement that followed, make the industry’s ask plain. Pay the people who keep the airspace safe, then argue the policy details after the holiday crush.
While it might not have been the most independent position to make statements from the White House lawn with Republican lawmakers flanking both sides, and using the Republican talking points, it doesn’t change that the bill in question to re-open the government is the same as the one passed earlier this year and drafted by congress under the prior administration.
CEOs from United, Delta, and American have all made statements supporting the Clean Continuing Resolution, but this is also out of self-interest too. If the government re-opens now and travel is smooth for Thanksgiving, earnings stay on track as does travel. But if it doesn’t re-open they will all experience lower sales, higher costs, and greater uncertainty. Re-opening solves most of that even if they disagree with the politics behind either side of the issue.
A November To Remember
The Thanksgiving holiday is period is more than pumpkin pie and stuffing. It’s the perfect time for many families who don’t see each often throughout the year, a chance to get together. This time of year also kicks of the busy holiday season with the Rockefeller Christmas tree lighting in New York City taking place the following week. Many Christmas markets open around this time too (we love the markets.) Restaurants and shops are counting on travelers throughout the United States traveling too. Whether the government is open or closed, the annual Thanksgiving Day parades will still take place, but if travelers are stuck at home instead of with loved ones elsewhere, it won’t be the same.
Conclusion
Thanksgiving 2025 is set up to be huge again, and the federal shutdown is the wrong variable at the wrong time. If Washington flips the lights back on immediately, the system bends but mostly holds. Two weeks out is survivable with bruises. One week out is a scramble. No deal by travel week, and travelers will see persistent lines, rolling delays, and very cranky turkeys. The airline CEOs are not crying wolf. They are reading the tea leaves that say the fastest fix is a clean CR that pays the people who keep the sky moving. Reopen now, then fight about policy after the last slice of pie.
What do you think?