Flanked by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby heaped praises on the Trump administration and echoed Republican calls to immediately reopen the government without strings attached. Folks, I see this as a 4D chess move for JetBlue, with a timeline that gives Kirby little room for error.

United Airlines CEO, Flanked By Vance And Duffy, Plays 4D Chess At White House

Speaking at a press gaggle outside the White House West Wing, Vance delivered remarks then asked if anyone else wanted to speak. Standing next to American Airlines CEO Robert Isom, Kirby stepped up, speaking stylistically off the cuff.

“Thank you, Mr. Vice President, thank you, Secretary Duffy, thank you all for being with us today. I want to start by really thanking the professionals, the air traffic controllers, the folks at the TSA, also the FAA, the people in management. They are working hard, they really are keeping the skies safe.

“We’ve minimized delays. Fewer than 2% of flights have been delayed because of air traffic control shortages, so they’ve done a great job. But, it’s putting on stress on people. It’s not fair to those people, it’s also putting stress on the economy. The first couple of weeks this had no impact on the economy, but as every day goes by, the impacts start to grow and airlines are a pretty good real-time indicator of the economy and we are start to see still minor, but steep booking impact and you see that happening in economy…you put the whole economy at risk.

“It has been 30 days and while I don’t have a position on which partisan side and how things should be settled with healthcare, it has been 30 days. I also think it its time to pass a clean CR. Use that as the opportunity to get into a room behind closed doors and negotiate hard on the real and substantive issues the American people want our politicians on both sides of the aisle to solve, but let’s get a clean CR and get that negotiation done behind closed doors without putting the American workers and the American economy at risk.”

Vance responded, “Great.”

You can also watch his remarks, starting at 6:44.

Yes, I like Scott Kirby and think he has been exactly the leader United needs…he was let go from American Airlines at the perfect time. But it’s not empty adulation: in him, I see a shrewd character who is willing to push the envelope for the betterment of his airline (of course, we all have lapses in judgment and his use of private jet during a June 2023 meltdown is perhaps the most glaring example).

Is Kirby Hostage Or In Control? Yes…

View From The Wing argues, “It was no coincidence that the CEOs of Delta, American, and United all took the same public position on the government shutdown – that it needs to be resolved in exactly the way that the political leaders who regulate them says it does.”

He’s right. Earlier, I covered statements from Delta Air Lines and American Airlines, both arguing for a so-called clean continuing resolution. But I don’t think Kirby is simply a hostage to the administration…I think he sees beyond that.

> Read More: Shutdown Hits First Class: Delta Air Lines Calls On Congress To End The Stalemate
> Read More: American Airlines Calls On Congress To End “Unacceptable” Government Shutdown

When I say 4D chess move, I mean an incredibly complex and seemingly illogical strategy that is either a genius long-term plan or a nonsensical blunder, and it could be the latter.

The move is not without hazard. Kirby’s approach to runway congestion at Newark Liberty International Airport really hurt United this year. Operational issues he hoped he could spin to United’s advantage actaully worked to United’s great disadvantage: flight caps eroded growth and profitability at Newark and Kirby’s arguably apocalyptic warnings about Newark helped to move the Department of Transportation to more strictly limit takeoffs and landings for a longer duration. Even so, United has solidified dominance in Newark: it might not be reaching the numbers it wants, but its competitors are frozen in place, unable to realistically challenge United’s fortress hub across the Hudson from New York City.

JetBlue Is The Goal

Yes, United wants an updated air traffic control system and fewer regulations impacting consumer protections. But as I see it, though, the big goal is JetBlue. United wants the planes, the people, and the JFK slots. It wants a hub at both JFK and EWR (and Boston too…) and Kirby’s relentless courtship of this administration strikes me as being geared toward realizing that goal.

JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker just addressed what an asset JetBlue will be to the airline that acquires it…I think he’s right. The question is just whether it will be Alaska Airlines, Southwest Airlines, or United Airlines (or less likely, American Airlines or Delta Air Lines).

This is not a business-friendly administration as much as it is one that pursues economic nationalism, populism, and protectionism. It also rewards loyalty and fiercely punishes dissent. While I would love to see Alaska and JetBlue join up to create a nationwide carrier, I tend to think that Alaska will instead more closely codeshare with American Airlines, thereby solving its East Coast weakness.

I still see Southwest and JetBlue as fundamentally incompatible and while a JetBlue-American partnership makes some sense (same with Delta, if for no other reason than to eliminate a competitor), there’s a lot less overlap than with United. That leaves United Airlines and I think that such a marriage is possible and Kirby sees a deadline of January 20, 2029 to achieve that goal.

In retrospect, the JetBlue-Spirit merger should have been allowed to proceed…I think there is zero question about that. It’s precisely because of that block which has now forced Spirit to seek bankruptcy protection twice that I think the administration may be open to greenlighting a JetBlue-United deal, especially if Trump can claim credit for it somehow (I can see Kirby saying, “President Trump and his administration are helping to keep airfare competitive in New York City and across the country.”)

CONCLUSION

Kirby’s courtship of the Trump administration continues, this time echoing the words of Vice President Vance that Senate Democrats should immediately agree to fund the government, despite not winning healthcare funding. While Kirby has many valid reasons to push for government funding as the CEO of a major airline, I continue to see Kirby laying the groundwork for a merger with JetBlue before the Trump administration sunsets (or extends to a third term…I wish I were joking) by January 2029.

Look for this to continue, then, like a lion waiting to strike, we will see Kirby pounce for JetBlue, hoping that his own personal relationship with the administration can help shepherd the merger through.

> Read More: Is Scott Kirby Praising Trump’s Tariffs To Win A JetBlue Merger?